Is Wagner in Myanmar ?
It is being claimed that the Myanmar junta may be seeking help from the Russian Wagner Group of state-sponsored mercenaries in its conflicts with armed groups opposing the government’s seizure of power. The claim was made in the 61st bulletin from a Chinese-language website called One Guide that covers the fighting in northern Myanmar. This is the first time the outfit has been mentioned by name in a Myanmar context. The bulletin was posted online on YouTube in the second week of August. If true, this would explain how the junta could circumvent the constitution, which bans the deployment of foreign troops in Myanmar.
The Wagner mercenaries could come to Myanmar as “instructors” or “security guards”, using the same cover under which they operate in other Asian countries. One Guide’s logo is a picture of the back of a mysterious man wearing a Western-style hat. The website features unique videos of the fighting in the north and detailed maps showing the exact locations of battles and the positions of Myanmar army camps and outposts in the area. The announcer speaks standard Chinese, and the English subtitles seem to be of high quality.While it is unknown whether covert mainland Chinese interests are involved with this website, the bulletin reflects what seems to be official policy that China is determined to be the only significant player in Myanmar. The dispatch accuses junta boss Senior General Min Aung Hlaing of “betrayal” for ignoring Chinese efforts to mediate in the conflict. The claim that the Wagner Group “is prepared” to intervene in Myanmar comes after a eulogy to Lin Mingxian, the commander of the National Democratic Alliance Army in eastern Shan State.
The MNDAA is the main resistance force in northern Shan State. Together with its Palaung ally, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), they overran the city of Lashio and the headquarters of the Myanmar army’s northeastern command in early August. According to One Guide, the UWSA and the NDAA remain “nominally neutral,” suggesting that these two groups are not impartial in the conflict. The UWSA serves as a conduit for Chinese weapons destined for the former CPB forces and other comrades-in-arms. It’s important to note that the UWSA did not enter Lashio to help the Myanmar Army, as suggested by some Western observers. Instead, the most likely purpose for the UWSA’s intervention was to stabilize the situation in the city and assist its MNDAA and TNLA allies.
Even if the junta receives help from the Wagner Group, it’s unclear what role it could play in the complex situation in northern Shan State and other conflict areas. The Wagner Group, also known as the Private Military Company Wagner, is a private military company named after its leader, Dmitry Utkin, a retired Russian military officer. Formerly led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group is associated with the Russian Ministry of defense.
